Once Shamir (whose name means "dill" as in "Shamir? - Just in My Soup!!") was ousted after 1992 there were expectations that Netanyahu would change the nature of the party, filling it with Young Turks, clean ideologues, free-market liberals, etc. What is the state of the Likud now?

Let us take a look at the players:

Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordecai; a not-particularly-brilliant ex-general, with no ideology at all. Had flirted with Labor after leaving the army, but was blocked there by Ehud Barak as Labor's current Generalissimo-in-Chief, so reluctantly joined the Likud. No major accomplishments or failures since taking office, and nothing at all to say about Oslo-Lite, the policy of Netanyahu.

Foreign Minister David Levy: Israel's answer to Dan Quayle. A low-brow butt of many jokes, arrogant and pompous non-entity, whose political career is based on his ability to attract Moroccan solidarity votes. Leads the Likud's "Social Lobby", the political grouping that wants to preserve and expand Israel's Scandinavian cradle-to-grave socialism and a major enemy of budget discipline. Levy's groupies in the Likud include Michael Kleiner and Rubi Rivlin, both marginally smarter than Levy but unlikely to have any role other than as "Social Lobby" socialists.

Hizzonuhs-de-Mayuhs: The two mayors from the Likud, Olmert in Jerusalem and Milo in Tel Aviv. Both have done excellent jobs as mayors, and have built up power bases, but went after the municipalities in the first place because they were outside the nucleus of Likud power once Netanyahu took over after 1992. Milo is a dove, Olmert a hawk. Both could be serious contenders for Likud leadership if Netanyahu goes belly up. Olmert is a man with a vision and agenda, Milo is a pragmatic sabra who wants to make himself a successful career in politics, but seems a competent administrator of Tel Aviv -- no simple job. Olmert has a weakness for cutting corners and is now under investigation for some monetary monkey-shines. Olmert also has a nasty temper that sometimes gets him in trouble.

Communications Minister Limor Livnat: Got to say that I like the woman. At first I did not, as she had been a supporter of affirmative action for the fairer sex. But she has earned my begrudging respect. She has been pushing privatization of the media. She has become one of the strongest of Netanyahu's close insiders, and she did it all on merit, unlike most of the other Knesset women who got where they did through quotas and preferences for token women. She is feisty and combative, and seems skeptical of Oslo Lite. In contrast, Likud Knesset Member Naomi Blumenthal is in no way up to par.

Coalition Chair Michael Eitan: I have always liked Eitan, among other reasons because of his glaring American accent (although he was born in Tel Aviv) and the fact that he has consistently been as close as the Likud gets to free-market ideas. I was disappointed he got no cabinet post. He has long been a close ally in the party of Netanyahu, although has not risen further in this government (I suspect) due to a lack of telegenic charisma. In recent weeks he has allowed himself to serve as apologist and Chief Rationalizer for Oslo-Lite, including the "Hebron deal", and I hope he privately thinks otherwise. Has been meeting with Beilin over a joint Likud-Labor proposal for the Final Settlement, but that could come back to haunt him.

Science Minister Benny Begin: He is one of the few in the Likud with a real vision and agenda -- other than just promoting his own political career (which is all that most want). He has become the main internal Likud opponent of Oslo-Lite, but is weak within the party. Should Oslo-Lite explode, he could become the "I-told-yo-so Comeback Kid". Personally incorruptible and honest, as even the Left would concede, speaks and writes well. Well liked by Likudniks, partly due to nostalgia for the senior Begin. Weak in terms of organization of internal party machine. Very weak on all issues other than Arabs/Oslo/diplomacy. Is a Likud Lefty on economic and social matters. Has long opposed the death penalty for terrorists. Like Begin senior, worries a lot about legal formalities.

Finance Minister Dan Meridor: I have long been a fan of Meridor. He is smart and cool, speaks well, seems to have an agenda. Yes, he bent over a bit too much as Justice Minister in the National Unity Government to protect due process rights for terrorists. And he has kept a low profile on Oslo-Lite, although I suspect he supports it (alas). On the other hand, he has long talked the right talk about economic reform. Since coming to office he has proven to be no Thatcher or Reagan, but he is indeed starting some serious economic reforms. The stock market bull run in Dec 96 -- Jan 97 might be due more to these reforms than Oslo-Lite (the accepted wisdom). Impeccably honest.

Uzi Landau: Has become leader of the hawkish wing of the Likud, strongly opposing Oslo-Lite. Weak within the party. He was a professor and any academic will have troubles in the Likud. Seems to lean toward free markets on economic issues, but is preoccupied with stopping Oslo.

Knesset Member Sylvan Shalom: One of the few Knesset Members on the back benches of the Right I like. Smart, close to Netanyahu, but not heard from very much since the election and largely passed over. Has a potential power base through his wife who is a partial owner of Yediot -- the country's leading daily with 2/3 market share.

Justice Minster Tzahi Hanegbi: Until the Bar-On Attorney General fiasco, was considered the closest Likud insider and Minister to Netanyahu. While reputed to be a hard-right hawk, he has been backing Netanyahu on Oslo-Lite. Gets where he wants to by brown-nosing Netanyahu. Has a record of juvenile pranks (sabotaging Rabin's platform microphone) and minor hooliganism (as Hebrew University student activist). Is trying now to project seriousness and responsibility. Supported some of the Likud populism before the election. I think he was hurt by the Bar-On fiasco. In comparison with the average Likudnik he is middle-brow, but that says more about the rank-and-file than it compliments him. Seems to be popular in the party, but if Netanyahu sinks - thither goeth also Hanegbi.

The Dwarfs: The Likud benches are filled with low-brow demagogues and incompetents. Among the notorious ones are Knesset Speaker High-School Don (Don Tichon), the most obnoxious person in the Likud, who is incapable of completing a sentence without all present wanting to slap him silly. A details man who cannot see the forest due to all the trees. Pompous and arrogant. Then there is Meir Sheetrit, a leading Likud socialist and all-round crook, now facing prosecution for misuse of public funds. Supported the socialist National Health Insurance Law and other "social" populism. Gideon Ezra was supposed to be a Likud Mr. Security, having been deputy chief of the Shin Bet, but has become Mr. Lemming, proposing a unilateral withdrawal by Israel out of Lebanon.

The biggest mystery is of course Netanyahu himself. He has led the current policy of pining for the fjords of Oslo, and trying to out-Oslo Peres. Does he have a secret plan? Is his secret plan that he simply wants to be Prime Minister and as such will lead the Likud in implementing a Labor set of policies across the board? On economics he has talked up a storm about privatizing and competition, yet supported such atrocities as the National Health Insurance Law and Rabin's bailout of the Histadrut's pension funds, and has not (yet) done anything very radical, leaving the few reforms being initiated to Meridor. Will he yet come out of the closet as a true reformer? Wait and see. I have my doubts.

Infrastructure Minister Arik Sharon: Sharon is still widely despised in Israel for the heavy losses Israel took during the 1982 "Peace for Galilee Campaign" in Lebanon, besmirching his truly heroic accomplishments as a general before that. The Americans blame him for Sabra and Shatilla, the Israeli public for misleading the country at the start of the Lebanese war and getting 700 Israelis killed. More recently, Sharon has a strong faction in the party and has staked out a strong anti-Oslo-Lite position. (How sincere?) As a Minister he was arguably the very worst economics cabinet minister in all of Israeli history, as he served as Agriculture, Ministry and Commerce, and Housing Ministers. He is a statist and cuts corners with public property to make his contractor and industrialist friends rich and happy. A Soviet-style central planner at heart. Has rep of impropriety in personal affairs (how did he get so rich as a general?) Always look like he needs a spittoon.

Yehoshua Matsa is Health Minister. He is well-liked and considered a "nice guy", but in my opinion not real smart and not at all cut out for the Health job, which can be a mine field, especially as the health system is in perpetual crisis. I do not envy him. Moshe Katsav, the Tourist Minister is also well-liked, but seems out of the center of power, and has also tended to support "Social Lobby" populism. Politically, he is a nice-guy David Levy without the fan job on his hair or the arrogance.

Of the party elders not in the Knesset, both Moshe Arens and Zalman Shoval are smart and principled, honest-to-Trumpeldor Revisionists. Shamir belongs in your soup.

The Right outside the Likud:

A pleasing surprise has been the Russian immigrant party started by Natan Analtoli Sharansky. Sharansky himself is a great moral symbol -- kind of like an Israeli Elie Wiesel (although I am sure he would not like the analogy), a true hero. The other party leaders are not well known, at least not outside the Russian community, but seem smart and honest to a man/woman. Sharansky may try to widen his net and go after non-Russian voters next time, and I wish him luck. As a Minister of Trade and Commerce, he has so far not rocked the Corporate-Bolshevik boat and even initiated here and there some acts of economic Bolshevism (anti-dumping duties on imported diapers and such), but I am hoping this will pass once he gets used to the position.

Avigdor Kahalani -- "Third Way". First, let me say I am a true fan of Kahalani. Kahalani is the Israeli Gustavus Adolphus. For those of you who are rusty about esoteric historic references, let me remind you that Swedish King Gustavus Adolphus single-handed saved Protestantism, and without him all of Christendom would probably be Catholic today. During the 30-Years War in Europe, he proved a military genius and saved the Protestant states from imminent annihilation at the hands of the generals of the Holy Roman Emperor (who had advanced all the way to the Baltic). Kahalani in the 1973 Yom Kippur War single-handed (literally) saved Israel from the Syrian assault. He is a man of sufficient principle to bolt from the Labor Party, where he was an up-and-coming ex-general (the sort Labor loves) over Peres' Lemming plans for giving all of the Golan Heights and a smidgen of pre-1967 Israel to Assad. He has been a "moderate" within the Netanyahu government, supports Oslo-Lite, but might just withdraw support if it got too out of hand. His comrades in the party also seem honest and intelligent, although a bit dovish for my taste.

Tsomet: Tsomet is still the house party of Rafael "Raful" Eitan. Eitan is liked because of his salt-of-the-earth simple non-pretentiousness, his Reaganesque simplicity of thought and speech. He has a tendency to get into vendettas with his own party juniors, over and over and over. In large part this is because he has no patience for those who disagree with him or for "team politics". Having run in a joint slate with Likud, he will be tarnished by Likud incompetence and any corruption that emerges over the next 3 years, and it is not clear how capable he will then be of re-running as a separate party. As Agriculture Minister he might pursue some serious reforms, as he did before 1992 in the same post. Of his other Tsomet Knesset Members, Eliezer "Modi" Zandberg is smart and quick and young and a go-getter. All the others belong in the dwarf category, and Haim Dayan has become a major embarrassment. Dayan is a contender for the lowest IQ in the Knesset and is now under criminal investigation for slapping about his wife.

The Religious: The main force of Religious Zionism is still the National Religious Party. Its leaders are intelligent and honest, although they are still more concerned about getting their share of government pork than about opposing Oslo on principle. One pundit said they would support withdrawals from the West Bank areas and the Golan as long as they were not done on the Sabbath. The NRP's rep has improved in the past two years, as more and more Israelis are turned off by the gutter anti-Orthodox McCarthyism of the Left and the media. The NRP picked up some secular voters in the last round, from non-religious Israelis put off by the sucking up to anti-Semitic Arab Communists by the Left and who were seeking an outlet for expressing their Jewish Jihad. NRP remains weak because of strong residual hostility towards the religious in much of secular Israel, even on the Right. Still, the NRP is usually seen as cleaner and more principled than the kleptocratic other religious parties. NRP has no ideas at all about anything in economics.

The Far Right: Moledet is the main party of the far-right, picking up a lot of Kahanist votes now that the Kahanists have been criminalized and banned. Its main problem, other than its image of extremism, is its image of being the party of wackiness and cranks. Zeevi himself speaks well, but has an image of being unprincipled and used to have (reputed) underworld ties. He is an ex-general. His saving grace is Rabbi Benny Elon, a smart and well-spoken Rabbi who may yet save Moledet's bacon (excuse the expression), especially if Oslo Lite implodes.

All in all, not a very promising picture.
# Click for next commentary.# Click for the B'tzedek commentary index.