The many political pundants through out the world seem to settle the question about the future of the Oslo peace process in the Middle East with the rather simplistic "it could go either way," or, "no one knows where it is going." An alternative way thinking and one that might indicate a path for resolution, is to note that the success or failure of the Oslo process ultimately depends on what I would call The Grand Oslo Hypothesis. This Hypothesis holds that once Palestinians are freed from the indignities of Israeli military and political control, once they are ruling themselves, then the xenophobia, the savage hatred of Jews, and the popular Palestinian support for terror and violence against Jews will all dissipate and disappear. Palestinians and Jews will live as reasonable neighbors, perhaps with little warmth, but peaceful neighbors nevertheless.

Scratch any advocate or argument in favor of Oslo and you will find that they ultimately rely on The Grand Hypothesis. Scratch any advocate or argument opposed to Oslo and you will find that they rely ultimately on disbelief in the Hypothesis. While Oslo opponents have long been caricatured as preferring land to peace, in reality the vast majority are simply skeptics who do not believe in the Hypothesis.

If the Hypothesis could be shown to be destined to hold with success, then most Oslo opponents could be persuaded to join the Oslo bandwagon. But suppose the Hypothesis could be shown NOT to hold. What then? It would mean that at the end of the Oslo road, after virtually all of Judea, Samaria and Gaza are granted to Arafat, after Israel is within its 1949 borders plus or minus (in their narrowest about equal to the length of the San Francisco Bay Bridge with its ramps), Arafat and a Sudetenized PLO will relaunch a campaign of terror and irredentism and try to draw in Arab sister states into a final campaign of destruction against the rump Israel. If that could be shown to be the outcome of Oslo, then I imagine virtually all its supporters in Israel, and all but its most anti-Jewish abroad, would demand an immediate end to Oslo.

The real problem is that the Grand Hypothesis rests on futurology, on guessing the future. And that of course is why Israelis are split down the middle over it.

Now in science, when there is dispute over a hypothesis, the resolution lies in putting it to empirical tests. The dispute over the Oslo Hypothesis cannot be resolved through conjuring of clouds and crystal balls. But it can be resolved through empirical testing. If the Hypothesis is correct, then after each stage of Israeli withdrawal, a lessening of tensions and violence should be clearly visible. If not, then the Hypothesis is wrong. The best empirical test of the Hypothesis would be with respect to Arab behavior and attitudes towards settlers remaining in Palestinian areas outside Israel's green line. If the Hypothesis holds, there is no reason why these people cannot live in peace as a respected minority among Palestinians, much as Arabs live as a minority in Israel. If the "liberated" Palestinians treat them with violence and terror, the Hypothesis is wrong.

While some Jewish settlers may adhere to radical ideologies, that is all the more reason why they make the best empirical litmus test. If Palestinians demonstrate neighborliness and tolerance towards them, this will set even the most skeptical anti-Oslo minds to rest. Arguments that Palestinians feel "violated" by having a small Jewish settler presence living among them are as silly as arguments that US blacks should be barred from moving into neighborhoods of Southern whites lest white sensitivities be offended.

If the Oslo Hypothesis is believed to be true and that it will hold after the completion of the Oslo process, it should also hold at least in parts after each stage in which Oslo is implemented. If it does not hold for interim stages, then it would be absurd to continue the pursuit of Oslo to its bloody denouement. By this logic, the very last thing that Israel should do is pursue "physical separation", the quasi-apartheid doctrine advocated by the Israeli Labor Party, to prevent all contacts between Palestinians and Jewish settlers, or the forced expulsion of settlers from any parts of the occupied territories. If "liberated" Palestinians cannot be relied upon to behave civilly towards a handful of disempowered Jewish neighbors, then there is no reason at all to believe the Hypothesis that they will behave peacefully towards Israelis as a nation after further Israeli concessions and withdrawals.

The pursuit of "separation" and expulsion of settlers by the Israeli Left is equivalent to an admission that even they themselves do not really believe in the Hypothesis. If this is the case, then the Oslo process should be immediately halted. If it is not the case, then some serious empirical testing of the Hypothesis is in order before Israel endangers its existence any further.

Another sort of empirical test presented itself in late September 1996, presumably well after Garfinkle wrote his piece. This was the test represented by events surrounding the opening of the Hasmonean Tunnel in Jerusalem. The PLO failed this test in flying colors, using the Tunnel opening as an excuse to launch a pogrom, murdering 15 Israelis at Arafat's direct orders, assaulting Jews in each and every enclave in which the PLO had pledged to respect their presence, and in particular at every Jewish religious shrine within the reach of the Palestinian PLO-inflamed mobs, including the Western Wall, in total violation of every pledge in the Oslo accords. All this over an ancient Jewish tunnel that is blocks away from the Mosques, a Tunnel Israel did not build, but simply allowed Jews to visit.

I cannot imagine a better litmus test of Oslo than the behavior of the PLO over the Tunnel. That is, unless it is the behavior and attitude of "liberated" Palestinians towards Jewish settlers in their midst. Let us use science instead of wishful thinking and do some solid Hypothesis testing before things get out of hand, indeed before Oslo goes one step further.

Honest people do not know whither Oslo is leading. That is precisely the reason why it should be halted altogether until they do.
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